Geographic Convergence Detection - Worldmonitor

One of the most valuable intelligence signals is when multiple independent data streams converge on the same geographic area. This often precedes significant events.

How It Works

The system maintains a real-time grid of geographic cells (1° x 1° resolution). Each cell tracks four event types:

Event Type	Source	Detection Method
Protests	ACLED/GDELT	Direct geolocation
Military Flights	OpenSky	ADS-B position
Naval Vessels	AIS stream	Ship position
Earthquakes	USGS	Epicenter location

When 3 or more different event types occur within the same cell during a 24-hour window, a convergence alert is generated.

Convergence Scoring

type_score = event_types × 25      # Max 100 (4 types)
count_boost = min(25, total_events × 2)
convergence_score = min(100, type_score + count_boost)

Alert Thresholds

The detector only emits convergence alerts after 3+ distinct event types are present in a cell. The Strategic Risk alert priority layer then classifies the alert using both type diversity and score:

Types Converging	Score Range	Alert Priority
4 types	100	Critical
3 types with high event count	90-100	Critical
3 types with lower event count	81-89	High

The shared priority helper still has a defensive medium branch for scores >=50, but current detector output does not reach it because emitted alerts must already have at least 3 event types.

Example Scenarios

Taiwan Strait Buildup

Cell: 25°N, 121°E
Events: Military flights (3), Naval vessels (2), Protests (1)
Score: 75 + 12 = 87
Priority: High
Signal: "Geographic Convergence (3 types) - military flights, naval vessels, protests"

Middle East Flashpoint

Cell: 32°N, 35°E
Events: Military flights (5), Protests (8), Earthquake (1)
Score: 75 + 25 = 100 (Critical)
Priority: Critical
Signal: Multiple activity streams converging on region

Why This Matters

Individual data points are often noise. But when protests break out, military assets reposition, and seismic monitors detect anomalies in the same location simultaneously, it warrants attention, regardless of whether any single source is reporting a crisis.