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Tick 5 — 2026-05-22 03:45 UTC

docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-5.md

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Tick 5 — 2026-05-22 03:45 UTC

Thread: R12 (RF weather mapping — structural drift from passive ambient WiFi) Verdict: Negative-ish result with a clearly-actionable revision path. Honest progress.

What shipped

  • examples/research-sota/r12_rf_weather_eigenshift.py — pure-NumPy demo that tests "can SVD-eigenvalue drift detect a synthetic structural perturbation?"
  • examples/research-sota/r12_rf_weather_results.json — full numbers.
  • docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/R12-rf-weather-mapping.md — research note covering: 10-year vision, first-experiment method, negative result, why it failed, three concrete revisions for next attempts (PABS / per-subcarrier residuals / multi-day baseline), what still holds, vertical applications.

Headline numbers

Cosine distance from baseline
Control (no perturbation)0.00035
With 15% attenuation on 3 top-saliency subcarriers0.00024
Signal / natural-drift ratio0.69×

The synthetic perturbation produced a smaller spectral distance than natural temporal drift from operator movement. The top-K SVD-spectrum distance approach is too coarse.

Why this is still useful

  1. Saves anyone going down this path the time of trying naive SVD-distance — the data tells us it's the wrong primitive.
  2. Identifies the right primitives: principal angles between subspaces (PABS), per-subcarrier residual analysis, multi-day baselines.
  3. Cross-validates R5: task-specific saliency (count) ≠ task-specific saliency (structure detection). Same model, same data — different relevant features. Publishable distinction.
  4. Confirms R12 is CSI-only: RSSI is the trace of the CSI covariance matrix; if top-10 SVD can't see this perturbation, RSSI definitely can't. Bounds R8's commercial-enablement story to counting only.

What's queued for later ticks

  • Implement PABS-based change detection.
  • Per-subcarrier residual time-series analysis.
  • Acquire (or simulate) multi-day data with a known structural change.

Coordination note

This tick wrote NOTHING to PROGRESS.md to avoid races with the horizon-tracker agent (which is on the feat/ruview-mcp-m* track and editing PROGRESS.md concurrently). The ticks/tick-N.md convention used here means each cron-driven tick is fully self-contained — the final 08:00 ET summary script will consolidate them.