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Tick 35 — 2026-05-22 10:55 UTC

docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-35.md

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Tick 35 — 2026-05-22 10:55 UTC

Thread: Production roadmap synthesis Verdict: Terminal output of the loop. Maps every research finding to owner / LOC / dependency / priority. Total budget: ~3,500 LOC, ~25 person-weeks.

What shipped

  • docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md — 6-tier roadmap from loop output to shipped product.

Headline budget breakdown

TierTimelineLOCPerson-weeks
Tier 1Q3 2026 (next quarter)~4903-4
Tier 2Q3-Q4 2026~11806-8
Tier 32027~11408-10
Tier 4-5long horizon~700+6-8
Total~3,500~25 weeks

Tier 1 (Q3 2026) — 4 items

#ItemLOCPriority
1.1wifi-densepose plan-antennas CLI tool360HIGH
1.2R12.1 pose-PABS in vital_signs cog80HIGH
1.3cog-person-count v0.0.3 chest-centric50HIGH
1.4ADR-029 amendment w/ ADR-113 matrix0HIGH

Tier 1 alone delivers: 93× placement-coverage lift, 9.36× intruder-detection lift, ADR-029 closed.

Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026) — 4 items

ruview-fed crate (800 LOC), cog-vital-signs DP (120), bench validation (200), MCP placement tool (60).

Tier 3 (2027) — 4 items

Cross-install fed (530), PQC Phase 1 (490), real-AETHER + R3.2 (200), cog-fall-detection (200).

Tier 4-5 — long horizon

  • 4.x: PQC Phase 2, R10 wildlife cog, R11 maritime cog, R6.1 production
  • 5.x: Real RCS measurements, weather-affected propagation, fatigue cog, disaster-fed ethics

Critical-path graph

1.1 CLI ──┬──> 1.3 person-count v0.0.3 ──┬──> 2.1 ruview-fed ──> 2.2 DP-VS ──> 3.1 X-install ──> 3.2 PQC
1.2 R12.1─┘                              │                                   │
                                         └──> 3.3 real-AETHER ──> 3.4 fall  │
                                                                4.x verticals

Why this document matters

After 35 ticks of research output, this is the document that lets a team pick up and ship without re-reading the 34 research notes. Priority alignment, estimate-anchoring, critical-path visibility — all in one place.

What R-numbered threads ship in what tier

ThreadsTier
R5 / R6 / R6.2 family / R6.1Tier 1 (placement + PABS)
R12 / R12.1 PABSTier 1.2
R3 / R3.1 / R3.2 / R14 / R15Tier 2-3 (privacy + federation)
R7 mincutTier 2 (in ruview-fed)
R13 NEGATIVErules out BP cog, no Tier line
R10 wildlifeTier 4.2
R11 maritimeTier 4.3
R16/R17/R18 verticalsTier 4-5

Composes with every loop output

Every loop thread, ADR, vertical sketch has a line in some Tier above. This is the terminal output of the loop — the last document that needs the synthesis power of a research loop to produce.

Honest scope of the roadmap itself

  • Estimates are synthetic-data-based; may shift after bench validation
  • Critical-path may have hidden dependencies (e.g. AgentDB schema changes)
  • 25 person-weeks assumes full-time engineers, not split focus
  • Doesn't include integration testing, documentation, deployment ops time
  • Tiers are based on architectural dependency, not business priority

Coordination

ticks/tick-35.md. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch research/sota-production-roadmap.

Loop status approaching completion

~1.1h to cron stop. After 35 ticks the loop has produced:

  • 16 research threads (R1, R3, R5-R15, R16, R17, R18)
  • 6 exotic verticals (wildlife, maritime, empathic, healthcare, industrial, disaster)
  • 6 new ADRs (105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 113)
  • 3 negative result categories
  • 2 self-corrections
  • 3 honest-scope findings
  • 9-tick R6 placement family (complete)
  • 3-tick R3 cross-room re-ID arc (complete)
  • 3-tick R12 structure detection arc (complete)
  • This production roadmap synthesis

The 00-summary.md (final tick) will follow after the 12:00 UTC / 08:00 ET cron stop.