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Tick 24 — 2026-05-22 08:53 UTC

docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-24.md

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Tick 24 — 2026-05-22 08:53 UTC

Thread: R6.2.2.1 (3D N-anchor multistatic) Verdict: The 2D knee at N=5 (R6.2.2) doesn't hold in 3D. 3D N=5 gives only 49.4% coverage vs 2D 96.8%. Two responses: bump N OR use chest-centric zones (R6.2.3). The latter is the architectural fix.

What shipped

  • examples/research-sota/r6_2_2_1_3d_multistatic.py — pure-numpy 3D N-anchor greedy search.
  • examples/research-sota/r6_2_2_1_3d_multistatic_results.json — saturation curve.
  • docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/R6_2_2_1-3d-multistatic.md — research note.

Headline: 2D was over-promising

N2D (R6.2.2)3D (R6.2.2.1)Δ
235.7%7.7%-28 pp
363.4%28.1%-35 pp
486.2%40.6%-46 pp
596.8%49.4%-47 pp
6100%59.1%-41 pp
7100%65.1%-35 pp

No clean knee in 3D. Marginal gains stay 6-10 pp from N=4 onwards. 3D space is fundamentally harder because each Fresnel ellipsoid is a thin slab in the vertical direction, not a 2D rectangle.

Greedy strongly prefers "mostly-low + one-high"

At every N ≥ 4, the search picks 3-5 LOW (0.8 m) + 0-1 MID (1.5 m) + 1 HIGH (ceiling). Confirms R6.2.1's single-pair finding: diagonal-in-z links win.

ADR-029 amendment surfaced

The 2D-derived N=5 consumer rec is too optimistic for 3D. Two responses:

PathMechanismOutcome
Bump NN=7-8 for 65%+ 3D coverageMore hardware, same target zones
Use chest-centric (R6.2.3)Smaller zones (40×40 cm fits Fresnel envelope)N=5 hits 80%+

Recommended path: R6.2.3 + R6.2.2 N=5 = realistic 80%+ 3D coverage at ADR-029's default N. Architectural lever that aligns 2D and 3D physics.

Why this is meaningful (not a re-do)

R6.2.2 (2D) and R6.2.1 (3D single-pair) each told partial stories. R6.2.2.1 composes them and reveals 2D over-promised. Without this tick, ADR-029 would ship the 2D recommendation and discover the 3D shortfall during field deployment.

Composes with prior threads

  • R6.2 / R6.2.1 / R6.2.2: composition of the first three is the natural step
  • R6.2.3: the elegant fix for the 3D shortfall
  • R7 mincut: N ≥ 4 still required for byzantine detection
  • ADR-029: needs N + zone-mode specified
  • ADR-105 Krum: f=1 needs K ≥ 5; matches 3D recommendation
  • R14 V1/V2/V3: chest-mode aligns with R6.2.3 = tractable 3D

Honest scope

  • Greedy + 4 restarts approximates global optimum (real may be 2-5 pp higher)
  • 0.15 m 3D grid; finer would refine
  • Single geometry tested (5×5×2.5 m bedroom)
  • Free-space (no multipath restoring the 50 pp gap)
  • Body-footprint zones used; chest-centric not composed yet (= R6.2.4 follow-up)

Coordination

ticks/tick-24.md. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch research/sota-r6.2.2.1-3d-multistatic.

Remaining work

  • R6.2.4: compose 3D N-anchor + chest-centric zones
  • R6.2.5: multi-subject occupancy union
  • R12.1: pose-PABS closed loop (still highest-leverage implementation)
  • R3.2: embedding-level physics-informed env
  • ADR-108: Kyber substitution

~3.2h to cron stop. 24 ticks landed. Loop has 13 research threads + 3 ADRs + 9 deferred follow-ups closed.

Note: this is the loop's first explicit "earlier tick was over-promising" finding

The previous 23 ticks have built on each other constructively. R6.2.2.1 is the first tick where the right action is to revise downward an earlier optimistic number (R6.2.2's 2D 97% becomes 3D 49%). Honest self-correction across ticks is the kind of integrity the loop is meant to produce.