src/skills/write-memo/examples.md
This is a worked example for NFLX LONG · 12mo. Use it to pattern-match tone, density, and structure when drafting. Do not copy the numbers — fetch fresh data via the tools for any actual memo.
The example is shown as the content that would fill the template slots, not the final HTML.
Header strip values
{{variant_view}}
Consensus models ad-tier as a single-digit revenue line for the next three years. We think it is a 20%+ contributor to '27 revenue and the primary multiple-rerate catalyst. The Street is anchored to subscription-only unit economics and has not updated for ad-tier ARPU running 30% above their first-year assumption.
{{thesis_bullets}} (HTML list items)
{{business_snapshot}}
Netflix is a global subscription video streaming service with 270M paid memberships across 190+ countries. The company licenses and produces original content; "we have one of the largest libraries of TV series and films, with content available in over 30 languages" (10-K Item 1). Two membership tiers contribute differently: standard and premium subscriptions ($15-23/mo) drive 92% of revenue today; the ad-supported tier ($7/mo plus advertising) launched late '22 and is now the company's stated highest-growth tier. Unit economics differ: ad-tier subs carry lower subscription ARPU but ad revenue at ~70% incremental margin lifts blended contribution above the standard tier by year two of a sub's life.
{{whats_priced_in}}
At $620, NFLX trades at 28x consensus '26 EPS of $22.10. Consensus models 11% revenue growth and 23% operating margin in '27 — implying the Street is pricing in the subscription business compounding low-teens with modest margin expansion. Sellside ad-tier revenue estimates cluster around $4-5B for '27 (consensus mean $4.6B). Our '27 model puts ad revenue at $8.2B (+78% vs. consensus) on higher ad-tier sub adds and sustained ARPU. EPS divergence: our $29.50 vs. consensus $24.80, a +19% delta.
{{scenario_table}}
| Bear (20%) | Base (55%) | Bull (25%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue '27 | $42B | $52B | $61B |
| Revenue growth | +6% | +14% | +20% |
| EBIT margin | 22% | 28% | 32% |
| EPS '27 | $19.50 | $29.50 | $38.20 |
| Exit multiple | 22x | 28x | 35x |
| Price target | $430 | $785 | $1,205 |
| Return | -31% | +27% | +94% |
Prob-weighted return: +18% · Upside / downside: 2.4x
{{bull_narrative}}
Ad-tier inflects faster than we model. Disney+ pulls back on ad-tier pricing competition, leaving NFLX as the premium ad-supported inventory option for upfront buyers. Live programming (NFL, boxing, WWE) drives ad-tier mix of new signups above 70%, and ad CPMs sustain in the $40s as inventory stays scarce relative to demand. Content cost discipline holds — total content spend stays flat at $17B even as subs grow — and operating margin reaches 32% by '27. The Street rerates the stock to 35x as ad revenue crosses 20% of total, reclassifying NFLX from subscription business to dual-revenue media platform. EPS compounds 25%+ for three years.
{{base_narrative}}
Ad-tier grows roughly in line with current trajectory and reaches 50M+ subs by '27. ARPU holds at $9-10 as content investment in live and originals supports pricing. Content amortization peaks in '25 and rolls off, lifting operating margin to 28% by '27 even with $18-19B of content spend. Subscription business compounds high single digits globally with the bulk of net adds from APAC and LatAm at lower ARPU. The Street partially rerates the stock as ad mix exceeds 15%, multiple expands to 28x — in line with current level but on materially higher EPS.
{{bear_narrative}}
Disney+ and Amazon's Prime Video ad tier compete aggressively on price; Disney+ ad-tier subs cross 100M globally by end-'26 and Amazon bundles ad-supported streaming into Prime at no incremental cost. Ad-tier CPMs compress 25% to the high $20s as inventory floods the market and brand advertisers consolidate spend on retail media platforms (Amazon, Walmart Connect) rather than streaming. NFLX ad revenue stalls at $3-3.5B for '27 vs. street $4.6B. Content spend creeps to $20B as the live programming push (NFL, boxing) proves more expensive to renew than initial deals suggested. Operating margin compresses to 22% as fixed content costs deleverage on slower revenue growth. The multiple compresses to 22x — Disney's current multiple — as the market reclassifies NFLX as a mature subscription business with declining incremental returns on content spend. Stock retraces to the low $400s.
{{catalysts_table}}
| Event | Date | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 earnings — ad-tier sub disclosure | Jul '26 | Ad-tier sub count vs. our 45M target |
| Upfront ad commitments | Apr-May '26 | Total committed dollars; vs. $1B+ '25 baseline |
| NFL Christmas Day games viewership | Dec '26 | Concurrent viewers; ad-load testing |
| FY27 guidance | Jan '27 | First explicit ad revenue guide |
{{risks_table}}
| Risk | Mitigant | Tripwire |
|---|---|---|
| Ad-tier ARPU compression | Premium inventory (live sports) supports CPMs | Disclosed ad ARPU < $8 in any quarter |
| Content cost re-acceleration | Management explicit guide of $17B '26 cap | Content spend > $19B in any year |
| Competitive ad-tier launch from Amazon | Amazon ad-tier already live; share gains modest | NFLX ad-tier net adds < 5M in any quarter |
| Subscription growth stalls in APAC | Pricing flexibility, mobile-only tier | Net adds < 4M globally in two consecutive quarters |
| Multiple compression on rate environment | EPS growth outpaces multiple compression risk | Multiple < 24x with no operational miss |
{{position_management}}
Suggested sizing: 4% NAV — high conviction × 2.4x asymmetry. Entry: current ($620) or scale-in below $590 on multiple compression. Stop / reduce: trim 50% if ad-tier ARPU prints below $8 in any quarter; full exit if content spend guide steps above $19B.
{{monitoring_kpis}}
When you draft a real memo, match this density and specificity, not the surface aesthetics. The aesthetics come from the template; the substance comes from the thinking.