scientific-skills/clinical-decision-support/references/evidence_synthesis.md
Evidence synthesis involves systematically reviewing, analyzing, and integrating research findings to inform clinical recommendations. This guide covers guideline sources, evidence hierarchies, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and integration of multiple evidence streams for clinical decision support.
NCCN (National Comprehensive Cancer Network)
ASCO (American Society of Clinical Oncology)
ESMO (European Society for Medical Oncology)
AHA/ACC (American Heart Association / American College of Cardiology)
ESC (European Society of Cardiology)
IDSA (Infectious Diseases Society of America)
ATS/ERS (American Thoracic Society / European Respiratory Society)
ACR (American College of Rheumatology)
KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes)
Initial Quality Assignment
Randomized Controlled Trials: Start at HIGH quality (⊕⊕⊕⊕)
Observational Studies: Start at LOW quality (⊕⊕○○)
Risk of Bias (-1 or -2 levels)
Inconsistency (-1 or -2 levels)
Indirectness (-1 or -2 levels)
Imprecision (-1 or -2 levels)
Publication Bias (-1 level)
Large Magnitude of Effect (+1 or +2 levels)
Dose-Response Gradient (+1 level)
All Plausible Confounders Would Reduce Effect (+1 level)
After adjustments, assign final quality:
Search Strategy
Study Selection
PRISMA Flow Diagram:
Records identified through database searching (n=2,450)
Additional records through other sources (n=15)
↓
Records after duplicates removed (n=1,823)
↓
Records screened (title/abstract) (n=1,823) → Excluded (n=1,652)
↓ - Not relevant topic (n=1,120)
Full-text articles assessed (n=171) - Animal studies (n=332)
↓ - Reviews (n=200)
Studies included in qualitative synthesis (n=38) → Excluded (n=133)
↓ - Wrong population (n=42)
Studies included in meta-analysis (n=24) - Wrong intervention (n=35)
- No outcomes reported (n=28)
- Duplicate data (n=18)
- Poor quality (n=10)
Data Extraction
Fixed-Effect Model
Random-Effects Model
Heterogeneity Assessment
I² Statistic
Q Test (Cochran's Q)
Tau² (τ²)
Subgroup Analysis
Forest Plot Interpretation
Study n HR (95% CI) Weight
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Trial A 2018 450 0.62 (0.45-0.85) ●───┤ 28%
Trial B 2019 320 0.71 (0.49-1.02) ●────┤ 22%
Trial C 2020 580 0.55 (0.41-0.74) ●──┤ 32%
Trial D 2021 210 0.88 (0.56-1.38) ●──────┤ 18%
Overall (RE model) 1560 0.65 (0.53-0.80) ◆──┤
Heterogeneity: I²=42%, p=0.16
0.25 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0
Favors Treatment Favors Control
Multi-Guideline Comparison
Recommendation: First-line treatment for advanced NSCLC, PD-L1 ≥50%
Guideline Version Recommendation Strength
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
NCCN v4.2024 Pembrolizumab monotherapy (preferred) Category 1
ESMO 2023 Pembrolizumab monotherapy (preferred) I, A
ASCO 2022 Endorses NCCN guidelines Strong
NICE (UK) 2023 Pembrolizumab approved Recommended
Synthesis: Strong consensus across guidelines for pembrolizumab monotherapy.
Alternative: Pembrolizumab + chemotherapy also Category 1/I-A recommended.
Discordance Resolution
FDA Approvals
EMA (European Medicines Agency)
Regional Variations
Electronic Health Records (EHR)
Claims Databases
Cancer Registries
Prospective Cohorts
Comparative Effectiveness
Safety Signal Detection
Treatment Patterns and Access
Limitations of RWE
Strengthening RWE
Effect Measures
Example Calculation
Study 1:
- Treatment A: 30/100 responded (30%)
- Treatment B: 15/100 responded (15%)
- RR = 0.30/0.15 = 2.0 (95% CI 1.15-3.48)
- RD = 0.30 - 0.15 = 0.15 or 15% (95% CI 4.2%-25.8%)
- NNT = 1/RD = 1/0.15 = 6.7 (treat 7 patients to get 1 additional response)
Pooling Methods
Hazard Ratio Pooling
When HR Not Reported
Standardized Mean Difference (SMD)
Mean Difference (MD)
Compare multiple treatments simultaneously when no head-to-head trials exist
Example Scenario
Fixed-Effect Network Meta-Analysis
Random-Effects Network Meta-Analysis
Consistency Checking
PICO Framework
Evidence Table Template
Study Design n Population Intervention vs Comparator Outcome Result Quality
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Smith 2020 RCT 450 Advanced NSCLC Drug A 10mg vs Median PFS 12 vs 6 months High
EGFR+ standard chemo (95% CI) (10-14 vs 5-7) ⊕⊕⊕⊕
HR (95% CI) 0.48 (0.36-0.64)
p-value p<0.001
ORR 65% vs 35%
Grade 3-4 AEs 42% vs 38%
Jones 2021 RCT 380 Advanced NSCLC Drug A 10mg vs Median PFS 10 vs 5.5 months High
EGFR+ placebo HR (95% CI) 0.42 (0.30-0.58) ⊕⊕⊕⊕
p-value p<0.001
Pooled Effect Pooled HR 0.45 (0.36-0.57) High
(Meta-analysis) I² 12% (low heterogeneity) ⊕⊕⊕⊕
Benefits and Harms
Values and Preferences
Resource Considerations
Feasibility and Acceptability
Concordant Recommendations
Clinical Question: Treatment for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer, first-line
Guideline Summary:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
NCCN v3.2024 (Category 1):
Preferred: Pertuzumab + trastuzumab + taxane
Alternative: T-DM1, other HER2-targeted combinations
ESMO 2022 (Grade I, A):
Preferred: Pertuzumab + trastuzumab + docetaxel
Alternative: Trastuzumab + chemotherapy (if pertuzumab unavailable)
ASCO 2020 Endorsement:
Endorses NCCN guidelines, recommends pertuzumab-based first-line
Synthesis:
Strong consensus for pertuzumab + trastuzumab + taxane as first-line standard.
Evidence: CLEOPATRA trial (Swain 2015): median OS 56.5 vs 40.8 months (HR 0.68, p<0.001)
Recommendation:
Pertuzumab 840 mg IV loading then 420 mg + trastuzumab 8 mg/kg loading then 6 mg/kg
+ docetaxel 75 mg/m² every 3 weeks until progression.
Strength: Strong (GRADE 1A)
Evidence: High-quality, multiple RCTs, guideline concordance
Discordant Recommendations
Clinical Question: Adjuvant osimertinib for resected EGFR+ NSCLC
NCCN v4.2024 (Category 1):
Osimertinib 80 mg daily × 3 years after adjuvant chemotherapy
Evidence: ADAURA trial (median DFS not reached vs 28 months, HR 0.17)
ESMO 2023 (II, B):
Osimertinib may be considered
Note: Cost-effectiveness concerns, OS data immature
NICE (UK) 2022:
Not recommended for routine use
Reason: QALY analysis unfavorable at current pricing
Synthesis:
Efficacy demonstrated in phase 3 trial (ADAURA), FDA/EMA approved.
Guideline discordance based on cost-effectiveness, not clinical efficacy.
US practice: NCCN Category 1, widely adopted
European/UK: Variable adoption based on national HTA decisions
Recommendation Context-Dependent:
US: Strong recommendation if accessible (GRADE 1B)
Countries with cost constraints: Conditional recommendation (GRADE 2B)
Domains
Judgment: Low risk, some concerns, high risk (for each domain)
Overall Risk of Bias: Based on highest-risk domain
Selection (max 4 stars)
Comparability (max 2 stars)
Outcome (max 3 stars)
Total Score: 0-9 stars
Step 1: PICO Question Formulation
Example PICO:
P - Population: Adults with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease
I - Intervention: SGLT2 inhibitor (empagliflozin)
C - Comparator: Placebo (added to standard care)
O - Outcomes: Major adverse cardiovascular events (3P-MACE), hospitalization for heart failure
Step 2: Systematic Evidence Review
Step 3: GRADE Evidence Rating
Step 4: Recommendation Strength Determination
Strong Recommendation (Grade 1)
Conditional Recommendation (Grade 2)
Step 5: Wording the Recommendation
Strong: "We recommend..."
Example: "We recommend SGLT2 inhibitor therapy for adults with type 2 diabetes and
established cardiovascular disease to reduce risk of hospitalization for heart failure
and cardiovascular death (Strong recommendation, high-quality evidence - GRADE 1A)."
Conditional: "We suggest..."
Example: "We suggest considering GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy for adults with type 2
diabetes and CKD to reduce risk of kidney disease progression (Conditional recommendation,
moderate-quality evidence - GRADE 2B)."
Phase 1 Trials
Phase 2 Trials
Phase 3 Trials
Phase 4 Trials
FDA Fast-Track Programs
Implications for Guidelines
Triggers for Update
Rapid Update Process
Study Sponsorship
Author Conflicts of Interest
Mitigating Bias
Pre-Registration
Reporting Checklists
Data Availability
EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Osimertinib for EGFR-Mutated NSCLC
Clinical Question:
Should adults with treatment-naïve advanced NSCLC harboring EGFR exon 19 deletion
or L858R mutation receive osimertinib versus first-generation EGFR TKIs?
Evidence Review:
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ FLAURA Trial (Soria et al., NEJM 2018) │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Design: Phase 3 RCT, double-blind, 1:1 randomization │
│ Population: EGFR exon 19 del or L858R, stage IIIB/IV, ECOG 0-1 │
│ Sample Size: n=556 (279 osimertinib, 277 comparator) │
│ Intervention: Osimertinib 80 mg PO daily │
│ Comparator: Gefitinib 250 mg or erlotinib 150 mg PO daily │
│ Primary Endpoint: PFS by investigator assessment │
│ Secondary: OS, ORR, DOR, CNS progression, safety │
│ │
│ Results: │
│ - Median PFS: 18.9 vs 10.2 months (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.57, p<0.001)│
│ - Median OS: 38.6 vs 31.8 months (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.64-1.00, p=0.046)│
│ - ORR: 80% vs 76% (p=0.24) │
│ - Grade ≥3 AEs: 34% vs 45% │
│ - Quality: High (well-designed RCT, low risk of bias) │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Guideline Recommendations:
NCCN v4.2024: Category 1 preferred
ESMO 2022: Grade I, A
ASCO 2022: Endorsed
GRADE Assessment:
Quality of Evidence: ⊕⊕⊕⊕ HIGH
- Randomized controlled trial
- Low risk of bias (allocation concealment, blinding, ITT analysis)
- Consistent results (single large trial, consistent with phase 2 data)
- Direct evidence (target population and outcomes)
- Precise estimate (narrow CI, sufficient events)
- No publication bias concerns
Balance of Benefits and Harms:
- Large PFS benefit (8.7 month improvement, HR 0.46)
- OS benefit (6.8 month improvement, HR 0.80)
- Similar ORR, improved tolerability (lower grade 3-4 AEs)
- Desirable effects clearly outweigh undesirable effects
Patient Values: Little variability (most patients value survival extension)
Cost: Higher cost than first-gen TKIs, but widely accessible in developed countries
FINAL RECOMMENDATION:
Osimertinib 80 mg PO daily is recommended as first-line therapy for adults with
advanced NSCLC harboring EGFR exon 19 deletion or L858R mutation.
Strength: STRONG (Grade 1)
Quality of Evidence: HIGH (⊕⊕⊕⊕)
GRADE: 1A
Automated Alerts
Conference Monitoring
Trial Results Databases
Weekly Review
Monthly Synthesis
Annual Comprehensive Review